十七个大气环流模式模拟雪—气候反馈的结果分析

一般认为大气温室气体浓度增加引起的全球变暖因受雪的反馈作用而加强.通常对此的解释为:较暖的地球积雪覆盖面减少从而导致这样较暗的星球吸收更多的太阳辐射.在十七个大气环流模式中,我们应用海面温度扰动作为表征气候变化的一个量,对这些模式结果进行对比研究.结果表明,上述这种解释过于简单,并指出,云的相互作用和长波辐射都可能导致额外的加强或缓和增暖的作用.在十七个气候模式中,雪反馈净效应的量是显著不同的,该量在一些模式为弱负反馈,而在其它的则为强正反馈.     

Recent Changes in the Near-Infrared Structure of eta Carinae

I present the first results from a Hubble Space Telescope/NICMOS imaging study of the most metal-poor blue compact dwarf galaxy, I Zw 18. The near-infrared color-magnitude diagram (CMD) is dominated by two populations, one 10-20 Myr population of red supergiants and one 0.1-5 Gyr population of asymptotic giant branch stars. Stars older than 1 Gyr are required to explain the observed CMD at the adopted distance of 12.6 Mpc, showing that I Zw 18 is not a young galaxy. The results hold also if the distance to I Zw 18 is significantly larger. This rules out the possibility that I Zw 18 is a truly young galaxy formed recently in the local universe.     

A distance-drawdown aquifer test method for aquifers with areal anisotropy

A new distance-drawdown method for aquifers with anisotropy on the horizontal plane is presented. The method uses scalar transformation to convert to an equivalent, isotropic medium, thus permitting application of the Cooper-Jacob Method. The method is applicable to cases where at least one ellipse of equal drawdown can be delineated but can also be applied where no ellipse can be discerned from the data. In the latter case, a least-squares regression approach can be employed to estimate the orientation and magnitude of the anisotropy. The regression R2 value provides a quantitative assessment of the degree to which the drawdown data are indicative of a systematic areal anisotropy in the aquifer or whether the data simply reflect natural aquifer heterogeneity. In addition to confined aquifers, this methodology, like the Cooper-Jacob Method, is also applicable to unconfined aquifers either before the onset of delayed drainage or following the completion of delayed drainage provided that the u value meets the recommended criterion.     

Survivorship of coral juveniles in a fish farm environment

Intensive fish farming is an emerging coastal activity that can potentially enhance sedimentation and promote eutrophication in fringing coral reefs. Here, we investigate the effect of fish farm effluent on the juvenile survivorship of the reef-building coral Seriatopora caliendrum. One-month old juvenile corals (on terracotta tiles) were deployed in fish farm and reference (reef) sites in Bolinao, the Philippines at a depth of 2m. After forty days, no survivor was recovered in the fish farm, while survivorship was low (11%) in the reference site, with the survivors' growth rate at 3.3polypsmo(-1) or 1.3mm(2)mo(-1). The fish farm deployed tiles were covered with muddy sediment and were colonized by barnacles, whereas those in the reference site were overgrown by a short stand of filamentous macroalgae. Environmental monitoring revealed higher nutrient levels (ammonia and phosphate), sedimentation rate, and organic matter flux, as well as diminished water transparency and dissolved oxygen levels in the fish farm compared to the reference site. Hence, intensive fish farming offers a suite of physical, chemical and biological modifications of the coastal marine environment which have a detrimental effect on the survivorship of coral juveniles.     

Monitoring of Irgarol 1051 concentrations with concurrent phytoplankton evaluations in East Coast areas of the United States

The objectives of this study were to measure: (1) Irgarol and GS26575 (major metabolite) during the peak 2004 boating season at selected marinas and reference areas in the Carolinian Zoogeographic Province of the Eastern United States; (2) Irgarol and GS26575 at selected stations during the summer months in the Back Creek/Severn River area in Maryland in 2003 and 2004; and (3) structural and functional characteristics of resident phytoplankton communities concurrently with Irgarol and GS26575 monitoring in Back Creek/Severn River area. Irgarol concentrations from 14 marinas in the Carolinian Province ranged from non-detectable (<1 ng/L) to 85 ng/L; concentrations were less than 16 ng/L at all reference sites. The probability of exceeding the plant 10th centile for Irgarol (251 ng/L) was less than 0.6% for all marinas and 0.01% for all reference areas. These data suggest low ecological risk from Irgarol exposure for both marina and reference areas in the Carolinian Province. Irgarol concentrations ranged from 5 ng/L at the Severn River reference site to 1,816 ng/L in Port Annapolis marina during the two year study. Ecological risk from Irgarol exposure was high for the Port Annapolis marina sites based on a probability of exceeding the plant 10th centile. However, risk was low for Severn River and Severn River reference sites. Functional and structural measures of resident phytoplankton communities in the Back Creek and Severn River did not suggest that these target species are impaired in the Port Annapolis marina area where probabilistic analysis predicted adverse effects from Irgarol exposure.     

Sublethal effect of naphthalene on lipid peroxidation and antioxidant status in the edible marine crab Scylla serrata

The effect of naphthalene on lipid peroxidation and antioxidants status was studied in hepatopancreas, haemolymph and ovary of the Scylla serrata with reference to the active vitellogenic stage. There was an overall increase in lipid peroxidation activity in the tested samples. In contrast, the enzymatic (catalase, glutathione peroxidase, superoxide dismutase) and non-enzymatic antioxidants (vitamins C, E and glutathione) showed decreased activities for hepatopancreas, haemolymph and ovary.     

地球系统科学,全球变化与与可持续发展

针对当今全球性环境危机问题，阐述了地球系统科学、全球变化与可持续发展关系，提出只有积极地进行全球变化研究，才能很好地协调自然与社会的持续稳定发展。     

气候变化影响和适应认知的演进及对气候政策的影响

通过分析IPCC第二工作组的5次评估报告对气候变化影响、适应的主要结论和方法的演进、原因以及对国际适应谈判和国家适应政策的影响,指出由于文献的迅速增加,影响评估方法和适应技术手段的不断成熟,以及思维的转变和意识的逐渐增强,IPCC进一步确认了气候变化已经并将继续对自然生态系统和人类社会产生广泛而深刻的影响;未来社会经济发展路径、适应和减缓行动以及风险治理将影响气候变化带来的风险。IPCC报告极大地推动了国际和各国适应气候变化科学研究和政策实践的进程。尽管中国各级各部门已逐渐将适应融入到相关政策中,但仍然存在认识、能力、体制机制等问题,需要进一步推进国家和各地的适应工作。     

IPCC《可再生能源与减缓气候变化特别报告》及其对应对气候变化前景的影响分析

应对气候变化和能源安全已成为全球性的重大问题,在此背景下,2008年4月在布达佩斯召开的政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第28次全会上,决定由IPCC第三工作组组织编写《可再生能源与减缓气候变化特别报告》(以下简称SRREN)①。全球120多位专家,先后举行6次会议,历时2年半,完成了SRREN的编写。2011年5月,IPCC第三工作组